14 Aug 2026
ANRPC says supply strongly impacted from on-going El Nino weather pattern, to peak by year-end
Kuala Lumpur – Global natural rubber (NR) production fell 3.7% year-on-year in the month of June to 1.2 million tonnes, while demand rose 3.3% to 1.3 million tonnes, according to data published by Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).
The decline in output reflected seasonal wintering compounded by “unusually high temperatures and rainfall disruptions across Southeast and south Asia,” said ANRPC in its latest monthly NR report 31 July.
According to ANRPC, climate models indicate the El Nino event has been formally confirmed by multiple agencies, with a 63% probability of reaching "very strong" intensity between November and January 2027.
Demand, meanwhile, was led by China and India, supported by “steady tire and EV-linked demand, resilient manufacturing PMIs in China (50.3) and India (54.2), and record auto retail sales in India.”
In June 2026, China's NR consumption reached 602,500 tonnes, reflecting a decline from 611,200 tonnes compared with the previous month.
The substantial decline was attributed to “stable inventory levels” of both raw materials and finished goods, which ANRPC said have supported steady market supply.
India's consumption is projected to have reached 114,000 tonnes in June, up slightly from 113,000 tonnes in May, indicating a modest month-on-month expansion.
The ANRPC projects global NR production to reach 15.310 million tonnes in 2026, up 2.3% from an estimated 14.971 million tonnes in 2025.
The modest supply expansion, however, “continues to face structural headwinds, adverse weather, insufficient replanting investment, and geopolitical uncertainties, despite firmer grower prices,” the association warned.
Total demand is expected to reach 15.411 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 15.602 million tonnes but up from 15.301 million tonnes in 2025.
The lower estimate reflects downward revisions from China and India for 2026.
ANRPC linked the “gentle uptick” in demand largely to sustained growth in China and India, while consumption in mature markets started to ease.
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