USTMA cuts tire shipment forecast for 2026

Washington – The US Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) has significantly lowered its forecast for US tire shipments in 2026, with total shipments now expected to decline 1.8% from 2025 to 330.3 million units. 

The latest forecast, issued 6 August, compares with the 338.9 million units projected by USTMA in March and represents a downward revision of 2.5% or 8.6 million units. 

The revised 2026 forecast is also 2.4 million units, or 0.7%, below the 332.7 million units shipped in 2019. 

Passenger car tire shipments are now forecast to decline in both the OE and replacement markets in 2026. 

PC OE shipments are forecast at 41.0 million units, down 0.7% year-on-year from 41.3 million in 2025 and 1.4%, below USTMA's March forecast of 41.6 million. 

Shipments are also expected to remain well below 2019 levels, at 11.3% lower than the 46.3 million units shipped that year. 

In the passenger car tire replacement market, tire shipments are forecast at 218.3 million units, down 1.6% from 221.9 million in 2025 and 2.2% below the March projection of 223.3 million. 

Compared to 2019, replacement passenger tire shipments are expected to come in 1.9% below the 222.6 million units shipped that year. 

Light truck OE shipments are forecast at 6.3 million units in 2026, down 1.3% from 6.4 million in 2025 and 3.1% from USTMA's March forecast of 6.5 million. 

Compared to 2019. light truck OE remains above pre-pandemic levels, with shipments forecast to be 7.2% higher than the 5.9 million units recorded that year. 

In the replacement market, light truck tires shipments are expected to come in at 37.1 million units, down 1.6% from 37.7 million in 2025 and 2.4%, below the March projection of 38.0 million. 

Replacement light truck shipments are still expected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels, at 14.0% higher than the 32.5 million units shipped in 2019. 

The truck tire OE market is expected to be the only OE category to record year-on-year growth in 2026. 

USTMA expects truck OE shipments to reach 4.6 million units, up 6.2% from 4.4 million in 2025 but 2.1% below the March projection of 4.7 million. 

Truck tire OE shipments remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels, with the latest forecast 28.6% lower than the 6.5 million units shipped in 2019. 

Replacement truck tires saw the largest downward revision, with USTMA expecting demand at 22.9 million units, down 7.1% from 24.7 million in 2025 and the previous forecast. 

Despite the sharp year-on-year decline, replacement truck shipments are expected to remain 21.1% above the 18.9 million units shipped in 2019.