ANRPC expects slight growth in natural rubber supply, demand in ’26

Kuala Lumpur — Global natural rubber (NR) supply and demand are expected to post modest growth in 2026, according to the latest monthly outlook from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

“Despite various global economic pressures, market sentiment remains resilient, supported by recovery signals in the tire industry,” the association said in its January report, published 2 March.

The current market conditions, it noted, represent “a period of consolidation” following recent price gains and ahead of the seasonal wintering period between February and May, when global supply typically tightens.

For 2026, ANRPC said it estimated that global NR production will reach 15.324 million tonnes, representing a 2.2% increase compared with 14.996 million tonnes in 2025.

According to the association, the industry continues to face structural challenges, including “adverse weather conditions, insufficient replanting investment, and sudden changes in market perceptions stemming from the volatile global economy,” which influence supply dynamics.

Global NR consumption is forecast to grow more slowly than production, with demand expected to increase 1.4% year-on-year to 15.602 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 15.382 million tonnes in 2025.

Citing projected estimates by member states, ANRPC said NR production in January is expected to stand at 1.409 million tonnes, up 4.3% year-on-year.

The growth, it said, is supported partly by favourable weather conditions in key producing countries and stronger rubber prices.

Demand for the month is projected at 1.287 million tonnes, up 4.4% compared with January 2025 consumption of 1.233 million tonnes, according to ANRPC’s monthly data.

The association said demand conditions are being shaped by policy and market developments, including US tariffs and anti-dumping duties on Chinese tire exports, as well as fluctuations in global oil prices, factors which are influencing manufacturing costs and trade flows.

In China, the world’s largest NR consumer, January demand is expected to reach 596,000 tonnes, up from 589,100 tonnes in December, supported by stable automotive-sector demand and continued growth in electric vehicle sales and exports.

However, ANRPC noted that growth in Chinese tire exports has begun to slow, which could affect raw material demand in the coming months.

Elsewhere in Asia, India’s NR consumption is projected to decline slightly to 115,100 tonnes in January, compared with 119,000 tonnes in December, while Malaysia’s demand is expected to remain stable at around 21,500 tonnes.

In Vietnam, consumption is forecast to fall to 36,900 tonnes in January, down from 43,000 tonnes in December, reflecting softer industrial demand.