Autonomous vehicles to take 26% market-share by 2040

Southfield, Michigan –  More than 33 million autonomous vehicles (AVs) – representing around 26% of the market – will be sold globally in 2040, up from the 51,000 units in 2021, IHS Markit has forecast.

In a new analysis, IHS Markit, linked the rate of growth in demand to a “rapid convergence of autonomous driving and mobility services such as ride-hailing.”

The US will lead the world in the early adoption of production AVs, with Europe and China expected to begin adding considerable volume from 2021 onward, added a 2 Jan release.

‘Mobility-as-a-service’ will first bring AV technology to the masses before individual ownership of autonomous vehicles enters the picture, the market analysis firm added.

“The first autonomous vehicle volumes will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services, according to Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit.

“Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, Juliussen predicted.

IHS Markit, he added, “forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars.”

Current investment in transportation technology by OEMs, suppliers, mobility service providers and technology companies is seen as having a significant impact on the market.

Other factors noted, include dedicated mobility service brands within many automakers contributes to higher volumes of autonomous vehicles in the forecast.

The US market will see the first autonomous vehicle sales in the world, the IHS Markit forecast says, as many individual states and the nation as a whole are expected to adopt an industry-friendly regulatory approach.

The first uses, it said, will be in mobility service fleets, which will provide early hands-on experience with the technology and help reduce consumer scepticism.

“Announcements from General Motors, Waymo and Uber contribute to early projected mobility fleet volumes in 2019 before personal autonomous vehicles become available as early as 2021,” said IHS Markit.

Mobility services have taken hold in many Chinese cities already, and driverless variants are expected to maintain popularity with consumers.

Total US volumes of AVs are expected to reach 7.4 million units per year in 2040, according to the firm’s analysis. At that stage, however, the industry in China is forecast to reach 14.5 million AV sales, while Europe will trail with unit sales of 5.5 million.