Japan's JAMA revises vehicle demand forecast downward

ERJ staff report (DS)

Tokyo -- Japan's vehicle demand is now expected to be lower than previous estimates due to the impact of the Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, combined with global economic turbulence. JAMA, Japan's federation of vehicle makers, now says demand for passenger cars, trucks and buses are all projected to decline from 2010. Jama forecasts a slight increase in motorcycle sales.

JAMA said total demand for passenger cars in 2011 is projected to decline from 2010 as a result of the sharp drop in sales in the second and third quarters, following the March 11 disaster. The new forecast is 3.58 million, down from 4.212 million units in 2010 and reduced from the previous forecast of 3.782 million.

Overall demand for trucks in 2011 is forecast to fall to 660,000 units from the previous year's leve of 731,094 units and the previous forecast of 671,300 units. The year-on-year slump in truck demand in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami on March 11 is the main factor behind this projected decline. Secondary factors include, with respect specifically to mini-truck sales, changes in demand structure.

Demand for buses in 2011 is also expected to drop from the 2010 level, as a consequence of tourism having fallen off sharply year-on-year since the events of March 11. Total demand is now projected to be 10,200 units, down from 12,775 units in 2010 and the previous forecast of 11,700 units.

Motorcycle demand is expected to be 435,000 units, up from 423,400 units in 2010 and the previous estimate of 409,000 units. JAMA said, the motorcycle market in Japan has been locked in a prolonged slump, attributable to a number of factors including the shrinking youth population and shifts in market trends for consumer goods. In 2011, however, the introduction of new models is expected to help boost overall motorcycle sales to a total of 435,000 units, up 2.7 percent from 2010.

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Press release from JAMA

Table of new forecasts from JAMA