ERJ staff report (DS)
Kuala Lumpur - Supply of natural rubber has increased faster than expected, which has led to downward pressure on prices, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC). The ANRPC said in the September issue of its puiblication, Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics that, "total supply grew 7.5% in Q2 against the 4.9% rate expected earlier for the same quarter. During Q3, the supply is now estimated to have grown 6.1% as against 3.3% rate anticipated earlier."
The total supply anticipated for the current year (January to December 2011) now stands revised up to 10.024 million tons, up 5.6% from the previous year. The upward revision has originated from a better-than-expected production reported during the second and third quarters in Malaysia, China and Indonesia. Malaysia produced 100,300 tons during July this year as against 87,000 tons preliminarily estimated for the month.
China, India and Malaysia, the three major NR-consuming countries in the ANRPC, together account for about 45% of the commodity's total global demand. Preliminary estimates indicates that the total consumption of NR (including rubber compounds having more than 95% NR-content) in the three countries is likely to rise 2.7% on year in Q3 this year.
Consumption of NR in China is estimated to have grown 4.7% on year to 915,000 tons during the Q3 this year. India's ATMA (Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association) reported a 14% annualised rise in the country's total output of all categories of auto-tyres during the four months ended July this year. While 'truck & bus tyre' segment posted a 9% rise, the increase was 23% in LCV (light commercial vehicles) segment and 11% in passenger cars segment.
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Sept issue of Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics from ANRPC (ANRPC Subscription required)