ERJ staff report (DS)
Kuala Lumpur - Following a decrease in NR prices in recent weeks, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) now expects output growth in the second quarter to ease to 5.8 percent, compared with over 10 percent in the first quarter of the year.
ANPRC revealed the forecast in the May issue of its publication, Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics. This covers historical data from February 2011, and forecasts for the coming months.
The group said output from its member countries in the first quarter of 2011 is expected to reach 2.348 million tonnes, up 10.1 percent from the figure of 2.133 million tonnes in 2010 and 1.79 million tonnes in 2009.
For the second quarter, ANRPC said total production by its members would be 2.205 million tonnes, up by 5.8 percent from the figure of 2.084 million in 2010 and up from 2.054 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2009.
The output growth during the full year 2011 now stands revised down further to 4.9 percent from 5.8 percent forecasted a month before and 6.4 percent growth attained during the year before. The new revision results from a down-scaling of Indonesia's anticipated production for the year, to 2.891 million tons from 2.972 million tons expected a month before. Philippines also has downscaled the output anticipated for this year, to 107,000 tons from its earlier forecast of 114,000 tons.
As a result of these revisions, this year's total output from all ANRPC nations is expected at 9.936 million tons only as against 10.025 million tons previously expected and 9.472 million tons produced during 2010.
The organisation said its forecasts are based partly on reduced demand from China. “China's Import of NR, including rubber compounds having very high NR-contents, has been on the decline after March this year. Import fell to 261,000 tons in April from 280,000 tons in March. Preliminary estimate indicates the possibility of import falling further to 245,000 tons in May and 235,000 tons in June. (An expected 27.5 percent year-to-year rise during Q2 this year reflects the very low volume imported during the same quarter in the previous year).†/p>
China's consumption of NR, including rubber compounds having very high NR-contents, is anticipated to fall 2.8 percent, year-to-year, in Q2 (April-June) this year.
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