ERJ staff report (DS)
Kuala Lumpur - The ANRPC (Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries) in its latest Natural
Rubber Trends & Statistics bulletin said the current supply/demand situation may be unparalleled in history.
Although demand has slowed progressively through the year - despite increases in truck tyre sales - the exchange rates of the Thai, Malaysian and Indonesian currencies are having an increasingly important impact on global natural rubber (NR) markets.
ANRPC said China, India and Malaysia consumed 47 percent of world's NR in 2009. This was inflated by the relatively low production of truck tyres in the developed world.
ANRPC said, â€œIn China, the growth in consumption of NR (including NR rich
grades of compound rubber) sharply slowed
down from 28.2 percent to 4.4 percent over Q1 to Q3 on
annualised basis. The country has scaled down
its consumption anticipated for the current year
by 50,000 tonnes to 3.30 million tonnes.â€
it continued, â€œGiven China's large market size of NR, even a
small change in the growth rate is crucial to the
global demand for the commodity. The country,
which has replaced Japan this year to become the
world's second largest economy, accounted for
32 percent of the global demand for NR during 2009.â€
ANRPC said the demand pattern in India has been similar to
that in China. Growth slowed from 12.2 percent at the start of the year to 1.0 percent in the third quarter
In terms of supply, the ANRPC said, â€œGlobal production of natural rubber may grow
up to 6.3 percent in 2010 as per data and estimates
reported in mid-September by ANRPC's
members.â€ However, the organisatino warned that this may be revised downward, as Indonesia's full-year projections have not taken into account a 10.4 percent decline in output in the year to June. A similar situation exists in Thailand.
ANRPC said, â€œThe output in Indonesia slowed down from
17.0 percent annualised rate in Q1 to 2.5 percent rate in Q2
in spite of the tappable area expanded by
64,000 ha during the year. Although the
government has not scaled down the output
anticipated output for the year, there have been
reports that production badly affected in June
and July due to unusual rains. The production
officially reported for June has already shown
10.4 percent fall on year.
This is an external link and should open in a new window. If the window does not appear, please check your pop-up blocking software. ERJ is not responsible for the content of external sites.
Download area from ANRPC