ANRPC foresees volatile rubber market amid global tensions, weather risks

Kuala Lumpur – The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has warned that the natural rubber (NR) market faces a volatile short-term outlook, shaped by a mix of geopolitical risks, macroeconomic uncertainty and sector-specific supply pressures.

In its latest m onthly report, issued 30 April, ANRPC said over the coming months would see a “complex mix of global macroeconomic forces and industry-specific dynamics [with] significant upside potential and increased price volatility.”

Ongoing trade friction between the US and China could weigh on global growth and disrupt "established consumption patterns" for rubber-based products, said the producers association.

Pointing to rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US, ANRPC said the conflict posed risks to crude oil and commodity shipping routes between Asia and other regions, increasing the "likelihood of short-term price swings."

On the demand side, ANRPC said projected growth in automotive production – particularly continued expansion of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, India and Southeast Asia – was expected to support NR consumption.

Currency movements linked to uncertainty over US monetary policy were also expected to play a "key role" in pricing dynamics and cross-border trade flows.

Within the sector itself, ANRPC said "unusually high temperatures" in major producing countries, arriving just ahead of the annual low-yield season, could further tighten "an already constrained market and exert upward pressure on prices."

At the same time, the association said broader economic uncertainty and existing tariff structures could disrupt trade flows and potentially lead to higher inventories of both raw rubber and finished goods.

The 'stock overhang,' it said, may limit price gains even if underlying demand continues to rise.

Supply is also likely to remain constrained by "erratic weather patterns" across producing countries, ANRPC added, contributing to what it described as a “cautious near-term outlook.”