World rubber consumption to reach 26 300 kt by 2011

ERJ staff report (DS)

Cleveland, Ohio -- Freedonia Group has updated its World Rubber & Tire study, with forecasts out to 2011. The 610-page study is available from Freedonia for around Euro 3800 ($5500).

The publishers say, "World rubber consumption is forecast to increase 4.0 percent annually to 26.3 million metric tons in 2011. Rubber demand will directly benefit from solid, albeit decelerating, growth in world motor vehicle production, as well as a stronger global economy. Rubber demand in China is expected to increase 9.5 percent annually to 7.8 million metric tons in 2011. While this is a slowdown from the torrid double digit increases achieved over the past decade, it will still be the strongest growth for any major rubber market in the world."

The authors continue, "China overtook Japan as the second largest market in the world in the late 1990s and displaced the US in the top spot in 2002 -- a result of strong growth in motor vehicle production, as well as in the general economy, in China over the past decade." They add, "The Asia/Pacific region is by far the leading rubber consumer, using more than half of all rubber consumed globally. In addition, the region is expected to see the strongest growth in rubber demand through 2011, reflecting strength in China, India, Thailand and Vietnam. Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Africa/Mideast regions will also see solid increases. In contrast, rubber demand in Western Europe, the US and Japan will increase less than one percent annually."

Non-tyre rubber will outpace tyre rubber demand through 2011, and in the process overtake tyre rubber demand. Demand for non-tyre rubber products will benefit from rising industrialisation levels in developing countries and solid opportunities in sectors such as automotive (belts, hoses, gaskets, mouldings, cushioning), industrial (adhesives, padding, belting, vibration dampening, wire and cable sheathing, hoses), consumer (toys, cushions, door moldings) and construction (wire insulation, mouldings, roofing, sealants and adhesives). Tyre demand will benefit from solid gains in both global motor vehicle production levels as well as the number of motor vehicles in use, which will benefit OEM and replacement tyre demand respectively. The continued popularity of performance tyres and rising levels of vehicle ownership will support tyre rubber demand. In addition, as incomes rise in many developing countries, there is a tendency to shift from retreads to new tyres.

The study is currently for sale only as a full edition in print or PDF format. It will be available for purchase by the page or chapter in a couple of months, said Freedonia.

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