Natural rubber supply dips in July amid market uncertainty

Singapore – Global natural rubber (NR) production is forecast to rise seasonally in July, but weather disruptions and other supply constraints continue to cloud the outlook, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

Global NR output is projected at 1.321 million tonnes in July, down 5.15% year on year, while consumption is forecast at 1.297 million tonnes, up 0.8%, reported ANRPC in its July NR report published 31 Aug.

According to ANRPC, the market in July was characterised by "seasonally improving production but continued uncertainty over supply.” 

Uneven rainfall, high temperatures and the emerging El Nino, said the association, have constrained the pace and reliability of supply recovery.

For the full year, ANRPC expects global NR production to increase 2.1% to 15.279 million tonnes in 2026, from 14.971 million tonnes in 2025.

The increase is nevertheless constrained by “weather-related disruptions, low replanting, geopolitical tensions, and other structural challenges”, despite firm producer prices.

Within ANRPC members, Thailand is forecast to remain the largest producer at 4.867 million tonnes, up 1.4%, followed by Indonesia at 2.025 million tonnes, down 0.8%, and Vietnam at 1.290 million tonnes, down 4.2%.

‘Rest of the world’, including Ivory Coast, is set to see a 5.7% year-on-year increase in production to 3.634 million tonnes.

India’s output is forecast to increase 4.4% to 943,000 tonnes, while China’s is expected to rise 2.9% to 955,000 tonnes.

On the demand side, ANRPC expects global NR consumption to increase only 0.4% to 15.356 million tonnes in 2026, from 15.301 million tonnes in 2025.

The latest forecast represents a downward revision from June, mainly reflecting revised forecasts for Japan, Korea, Mexico and the ‘rest of the world’.

“Demand is supported by resilient tire replacement activity, expanding electric-vehicle markets, particularly in China, India and Europe, and continued growth in automotive production,” ANRPC said.

However, the association said, “seasonal weakness in tire manufacturing, high raw-material costs, trade restrictions and geopolitical disruptions are limiting the pace of demand growth.”

ANRPC expects consumption to continue increasing gradually through the remainder of the year, but said the market will remain sensitive to “changes in vehicle sales, tire production, shipping conditions and weather-related supply disruptions.”