RMA predicts 2% rise in tyre shipments next year

ERJ staff report (R&PN)

Washington DC -- US replacement tyre shipments should achieve 9-percent increase for all of 2010 compared to last year, but economic uncertainties will keep growth at about 2 percent in 2011, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association's latest industry forecast.

Shipments of all tyres are projected to rise about 24 million units for 2010 to 284 million tyres, the tyre manufacturers' trade association said. Next year deliveries should increase to 290 million tyres.

The RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast aftermarket passenger tyre shipment growth this year will be roughly 4.8 percent, or 9 million units, ahead of 2009 at 199 million units. For 2011, replacement auto tyres will rise by nearly 3 million units.

Imports should claim an even larger share of the aftermarket passenger business both this year and next, the RMA said, as imports from non-RMA member companies are on target for a 6-percent increase this year and likely could grow 5 percent in 2011.

Replacement demand for medium and heavy truck tyres surged this year, jumping 2.6 million units-or 20 percent-over 2009, to 15.5 million units. Demand next year, though, should produce growth of only about 600,000 units, or 3.8 percent, the RMA said.

Replacement light truck tyre shipments this year should be up about 1 percent, or 300,000 units, over 2009 to about 28 million units, but the RMA sees little or no gain in this sector in 2011.

Shipments of original equipment passenger and light truck tyres jumped roughly a third over 2009 to 44 million and 3.7 million units, respectively, on the strength of the revived domestic car industry and improved economic conditions in sectors that use light trucks, the RMA said.

New car sales are expected to grow 6 percent in 2011 on the continued improvement in this sector, but demand for light trucks is expected to flatten out next year, the RMA said.

In the medium/heavy truck category, OE tyre shipments jumped nearly 24 percent, or 600,000 units, to 3 million units, reflecting higher industrial output and pent-up demand for new vehicles. The RMA expects the surge to continue next year, generating demand for an additional 750,000 tyres.

Overall, shipments are projected to increase by approximately 24 million units to 284 million units, a 9-percent increase over 2009, with growth in 2011 pegged at 2 percent to 290 million units.

The forecast is based on RMA tyre industry and economic data, government trade figures, and vehicle sales and production data, the association said.

From Rubber & Plastics News (A Crain publication)

Press release from RMA