IRSG forecasts 4% growth in global rubber demand

ERJ staff report (TP)

Singapore – The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) expects the world total rubber demand to increase at an accelerating rate of 4.1% and 4.4% over 2014 and 2015 respectively.

This is above the long-term growth rate of 3.7% under an 'IMF scenario' to 28 million tonnes in 2014 and to 29.2 million tonnes in 2015.

In its June 2014 ‘World Rubber Industry Outlook’ (WRIO), IRSG published data on production, consumption, trade and prices – covering both natural rubber (NR) and synthetic rubber (SR).

World NR demand is forecast to increase by 4.5% in 2014 under the IMF analysis and by 4.4% in 2015. The world total NR consumption is expected to be 11.9 million tonnes in 2014, 12.4 million tonnes in 2015 and increasing to 17 million tonnes in 2023.

World SR demand is expected to increase to 16.1 million tonnes in 2014 and rise to 16.8 million tonnes in 2015 under the IMF Scenario. In 2023, the demand for SR will be 22 million tonnes.

The outlook for NR supply is "positive, and sufficient to meet the demand of the industry for all forecast years under all three scenarios".

The WRIO is released on a biannual basis and presents the latest long-term forecasts for the next ten years, covering the world economy as well as the vehicle, tire and rubber sectors.

The June 2014 edition of the WRIO can be purchased from IRSG and contains two economic scenarios (IMF and Downside) and one supply control scenario.