Cambridge, UK – Cambridge Econometrics has completed a report commissioned by the European Climate Foundation to model the effects of including road transport in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
The researchers employed a special model to assess the effect on CO2 emissions if road transport was included in the EU ETS under current price projections.
The firm also studied the carbon price required to achieve the same level of emissions reduction as that which could be achieved by anticipated vehicle efficiency standards – 60gCO2/km for new passenger cars by 2030.
The analysis found that under current ETS price projections, inclusion of road transport in the EU ETS would reduce emissions in the road transport sector by between 1 percent and 3 percent by 2030.
In order to achieve the same level of emissions abatement in road transport as that which could be achieved by vehicle efficiency standards, a carbon price averaging €217 over the period 2020-2030 would be required, it added.
“Regulating road transport emissions by means of the ETS alone would result in emissions reductions of only around 1 percent by 2030 at current ETS prices, or of around 3 percent if prices were to rise [as per a 2009 baseline projection],” said the report.
Cambridge Econometrics concluded: “This would be insufficient for the road transport sector to contribute proportionately to the EU’s stated goals for decarbonisation.”