Currency effects, global woes hit NR prices

ERJ staff report (DS)

Kuala Lumpur - despite falling stocks, prices of natural rubber are still falling. This is due to gloomy demand outlook, falling crude oil prices, appreciating Japanese yen, and depreciating currencies of NR-exporting countries against the dollar, said the ANRPC in the May 2012 edition of its publication, Natural Rubber Trends and Statistics.

ANRPC said, “The outlook on supply of NR during this year has marginally improved from the figure reported a month ago. The total supply from members of the ANRPC is now anticipated at 10.475 million tons, up 1.5 percent, as against the previously-anticipated 0.1 percent fall to 10.297 million tons. It has registered a 1.0 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter and a 3.2 percent year-on-year rise is anticipated for the second quarter. The supply has grown 8.6 percent in 2011 to 10.325 million tons.

The improved supply outlook is expected to translate into a better-than previously-expected volume of exports. Total exports of NR (including compounds having more than 95 percent NR-content) from members of the ANRPC is now expected to rise 2.8 percent during this year to 8.004 million tons, slightly higher than the previously-anticipated figure of 7.854 million tons at 0.8 percent rate. The upward revision results mainly from the revisions for Thailand and Indonesia.

China's import volume is anticipated to rise 15.1 percent on year to 688,000 tons during Q2 this year. As destocking of rubber inventories in the country's bonded warehouses in Qingdao has reportedly slowed down since the beginning of May, China's import-demand is likely to moderate from June onwards unless there are new policy initiatives.

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Press release from ANRPC