ANRPC cuts 2026 natural rubber supply forecast

Kuala Lumpur – Global natural rubber (NR) production is expected to grow just 0.6% this year, following downward revisions to output forecasts for several major producing countries, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

In its August statistical report, ANRPC forecast global production of 15.039 million tonnes for 2026, compared with a revised 14.952 million tonnes last year.

The latest projection represents a significant downgrade from the association's July forecast of 15.279 million tonnes and 2.1% growth.

ANRPC said the revision incorporated updated estimates for production in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as revised 2025 production figures for Thailand.

Indonesia is now forecast to produce 1.877 million tonnes of NR this year, down 8% from 2.041 million tonnes in 2025.

Malaysia's output is expected to fall 10.9% to 300,000 tonnes, while Vietnam is forecast to record a 4.2% decline to 1.290 million tonnes.

By contrast, Thailand's production is expected to increase 1.9% to 4.834 million tonnes, while China is forecast to increase output 2.9% to 955,000 tonnes.

India is projected to produce 916,000 tonnes, up 1.4%, while production across the 'rest of the world' is forecast to increase 5.7% to 3.634 million tonnes.

Global NR consumption, meanwhile, is forecast to increase 0.4% this year to 15.356 million tonnes, from 15.301 million tonnes in 2025.

The modest increase, said ANRPC, points to “subdued growth in global rubber demand.”

China remains by far the largest consuming market, with demand forecast to rise 1.2% to 7.040 million tonnes.

Indian consumption is also expected to increase marginally to 1.441 million tonnes, while Malaysia and Cambodia are forecast to record increases of 8.2% and 7.5% respectively.

Demand is forecast to fall 3.5% in Thailand to 1.147 million tonnes and 5.7% in Vietnam to 430,000 tonnes.

For August, global production was estimated at 1.396 million tonnes, down 4.5% year-on-year from 1.462 million tonnes.

ANRPC linked the decline to “erratic rainfall and drier conditions” across Southeast Asia, stating that uneven rainfall and elevated temperatures continued to constrain the pace of supply recovery.

NR consumption during the month was estimated at 1.234 million tonnes, down 2.3% year-on-year.

ANRPC said demand continued to be supported by replacement tire activity, expanding EV markets – particularly in China, India and Europe – and automotive production.

These factors were partly offset by “seasonal weakness in tire manufacturing, high raw-material costs, trade restrictions, and geopolitical disruptions.”