Orion lowers earnings forecast as Western tire markets weigh on results

Houston, Texas – Orion SA has lowered its earnings (EBITDA) forecast for 2025 amid what it described as “a lower-for-longer industrial manufacturing backdrop”.

The company now expects earnings of about $220–245 million, down from a “+300 million” projection issued in February, Orion said 13 Oct.

Preliminary third quarter adjusted earnings are estimated at $55 million.

The quarter was impacted by “lower Western market rubber volumes, an oil price-driven inventory revaluation, inventory drawdown efforts which affected fixed-cost absorption, and adverse speciality mix,” Orion stated.

The company said it had “tactically opted” to reduce production of rubber-grade carbon blacks in response to “continued weakness in Western tire industry manufacturing rates” caused by elevated imports.

While the move supported cash generation, it carried “an offsetting penalty” to Orion’s profit and loss, explained CEO Corning Painter.

The lower production led to “lower absorption variances, incrementally contributing to the lower third quarter 2025 adjusted earnings results and our revised full-year outlook,” Painter added.

Painter said Orion continues to believe that the evolving global trade paradigm, including US tariff policy, will ultimately be positive for its business due to its regional footprint.

“But this has not been the case for 2025,” he added.

Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, Painter said Orion’s strategic focus had shifted to “navigating what many executives across the chemical industry expect could be a lower-for-longer industrial manufacturing backdrop.”

As part of this shift, Orion plans to implement additional cost-saving measures to strengthen earnings and cash flow generation in 2026.

Full third quarter results will be published 4 Nov.