ERJ staff report (DS)
Cleveland, Ohio -- World rubber consumption is forecast to increase 4.0 percent annually to 26.5 million metric tons in 2011, according to an updated report from Freedonia group.
The report's authors say, "China has become the leading consumer of rubber world wide, following more than a decade of strong growth in motor vehicle produc tion and industrial goods manufacturing. The country overtook Japan as the second largest rubber market in the late 1990s and by 2001 had essentially caught up to the US as the world's leading consumer. While China will continue to extend that lead, the US and Japan will remain leading markets worldwide, because of their extensive motor vehicle and tire industries."
They continue, "the double digit annual gains that characterised China's rubber market from 2001 to 2006 are forecast to slow significantly as its domestic market matures and motor vehicle production decelerates. The Chinese market will be sustained primarily by expanding demand for industrial rubber products such as hoses, belts and gaskets, offsetting slower, though still solid, growth for tyre rubber. Above-average gains also are forecast for most of the rest of the Asia/Pacific, excluding Japan, which will benefit from strong economic growth and rising motor vehicle production. In addition, the growing tire industries in these nations will support demand for rubber. "
In terms of polymer projections, Freedonia says, "Non-tyre rubber will outpace tyre rubber demand through 2011, based on a favorable outlook for mid-range elastomers (e.g., ethylene-propylene, nitrile and polychloroprene) used in components such as hoses, belts, gaskets and weather stripping. Tyre rubber demand will benefit from the popularity of performance tyres, which use more rubber than all season-radials and also have shorter service lives, thus stimulating replacement demand."
Freedonia continues, saying that the split between natural and syntheytic rubber. "will remain essentially unchanged through 2011, with synthetic rubber continuing to hold approximately 55 percent of demand and natural rubber holding the remaining 45 percent."
The 250-page report updates an older report from 2002. The most recent document was published in January 2008 and costs Euro 4400 for a single-licence digital copy. Freedonia says, "The World Tire & Rubber Market Report presents historical demand data for the years 1996, 2001 and 2006 and forecasts for 2011 and 2016 by product (tyres, natural rubber, synthetic rubber), world region and for 30 national markets. The study also considers market environment factors, assesses global industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 48 industry competitors worldwide.
ERJ has not seen this report and can make no judgement about its value or the quality of the research.
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Press release from Freedonia